Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated
نویسنده
چکیده
his study examined the long-run relationship between Nigerian exports and imports between 1960 and 2014. Exports and imports were disaggregated into oil and non-oil components. The application of the Johansen, Bound testing and the Hansen parameter instability test cointegration techniques revealed that Nigerian exports and imports at the aggregate and disaggregated level are cointegrated with the cointegrating coefficient very close to unity. This indicated that Nigeria's macroeconomic policies have been effective in the long run and suggested that Nigeria is not in violation of its international budget constraint. The result is however sensitive to the choice of the dependent variable between exports and imports. Utilizing the Toda and Yamamoto granger non-causality tests, we also report bi-directional causality between aggregate exports and imports, but uni-directional causality from oil exports to oil imports and from non-oil imports to non-oil exports.
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